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Climate Models

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In a carefully researched and insightful book, [Dr.] Steven Koonin highlights the significant uncertainty underlying climate models and statistics…  Koonin brings impeccable credentials to the climate science debate.  He worked as a professor of theoretical physics at Caltech for nearly thirty years…  He also served as Undersecretary for Science in the Department of Energy during the Obama administration.  With such deep experience, including extensive research using computers to model complex problems, he is highly qualified to comment on the validity of global climate models.

https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2022/04/81569/

and…

In a 2022 about-face published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature, a group of prominent climate scientists tell us it’s time to “recognize thehot modelproblem.”  

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2022/5/30/climate-science-establishment-finally-admits-some-models-run-too-hot-104

and…

Upgraded” climate models still much hotter than reality

https://www.cfact.org/2021/04/29/climate-models-hotter-than-reality/

… &

New Confirmation that Climate Models Overstate Atmospheric Warming
[C]onsiderable warming biases in the CMIP6 modeled trends [persist], and… these biases are linked to biases in surface temperature (these models simulate an unrealistically large global warming).

https://judithcurry.com/2021/08/17/new-confirmation-that-climate-models-overstate-atmospheric-warming-2/

… &

CMIP6 Climate Models Producing 50% More Surface Warming than Observations since 1979

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/06/cmip6-climate-models-producing-50-more-surface-warming-than-observations-since-1979/

and..

Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the modelmakers themselves, believe are implausibly fast.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/07/un-climate-panel-confronts-implausibly-hot-forecasts-future-warming

and…

Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.

https://judithcurry.com/2020/08/25/new-confirmation-that-climate-models-overstate-atmospheric-warming/

and…

The Sixth IPCC Climate Assessment Report (AR6) should be rejected outright because it is based on the use of fraudulent climate models.

https://venturaphotonics.com/research-page-6.html

and…

Lies and Deception: Twin Fuel for the Climate Doomsday Engine

https://stream.org/lies-and-deception-twin-fuel-for-the-climate-doomsday-engine/

and…

Top climate scientist breaks ranks with ‘ consensus ‘ 
Our models are Mickey-Mouse mockeries of the real world

https://www.wnd.com/2019/09/top-climate-scientist-breaks-ranks-consensus/

… &

Top-level climate modeler goes rogue, criticizes ‘nonsense‘ of ‘global warming crisis

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/09/toplevel_climate_modeler_goes_rogue_criticizes_nonsense_of_global_warming_crisis.html

and…

Nature Has Been Removing Excess CO2 4X Faster than IPCC Models

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/02/nature-has-been-removing-excess-co2-4x-faster-than-ipcc-models/

… &

None of the models used by IPCC are [sic] initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate.  In particular, the state of the oceans, sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models.

http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html

[For those wondering why the “sic” was inserted, the English word “none” is a compound contraction of the original “not one.”  The noun phrase “not one” is singular, not plural.  Use of plural verbs (such as “are“) with singular nouns is grammatically incorrect, regardless of how often it is used incorrectly.]

and…

Climate doomsday theory hinges on computer climate models.  Scientists use them to predict future climate and advise on government policy.  But there’s a problem.  The models are [always] wrong.  Most failed dramatically in their predictions of what would happen over the past 18 years.  Their forecasts bear no resemblance to real-world temperatures.  Surface warming predictions diverge increasingly from observations.  Worse, in the last 40 years, model projections for the global lower atmosphere exceeded observed temperatures by 67 percent.

https://stream.org/ocasio-cortez-al-gore-and-john-kerry-et-al-climate-doomsday-calls-and-embarrassing-anti-scientific-stand/

and…

[T]he new coupled model intercomparison project [climate forecasting] models are [less accurate] than the older ones… proving yet again that climate scientists modify their [predictive] models to [yield] anticipated [ideologically] acceptable result[s]…  [Yet] The Biden administration will rely on these [bogus, anti-scientific climate] models to [falsely inflate] the social cost of carbon… [exactly as] the Obama administration had done… by using an outdated equilibrium climate sensitivity distribution that was [likewise] not grounded in [empirical, scientific] reality.

https://www.dailysignal.com/2021/03/19/the-social-cost-of-carbon-and-climate-sensitivity-is-model-manipulation-at-its-finest/

and…

The big issue is not whether warming has “paused” or not, it’s how it compares to model projections.  RCP4.5 is considered a medium, plausible [model] projection.  But it’s already pulling away from the observations.

https://cornwallalliance.org/2019/11/climate-models-vs-observations-2019-update/

… &

A host of global climate models developed for the United Nations’s [most recent] major assessment of global warming, [published] in 2021, are now showing a puzzling but undeniable trend: They are running hotter than they have in the past…  Many scientists, including the model developers, are doubtful this increased warming is likely to be real.”

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/364/6437/222

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Even some global warming proponents are now arguing climate models have concentrated too much on extreme scenarios

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csythg

and…

STUDY:  UN Climate Model Predictions Are ‘Inconsistent’ With Real Temperature Trends

https://dailycaller.com/2018/04/24/study-un-climate-model-predictions-inconsistent/

and…

Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, [another] study finds

https://www.foxnews.com/science/climate-models-wildly-overestimated-global-warming-study-finds

and…

Growing Antarctic Sea Ice Defies Climate Models

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2021/3/8/growing-antarctic-sea-ice-defies-climate-models-

… &

While [climate prediction] models include the role of ice melt on global sea level rise, they generally do not include the impact of the effect of meltwater from ice sheets and ice shelves on the climate.

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/global-net-zero-climate-change-targets-are-pie-in-the-sky

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Coarse mineral dust (diameter, ≥5 μm) is an important component of the Earth system that affects clouds, ocean ecosystems, and climate.  Despite their significance, climate models consistently underestimate the amount of coarse dust in the atmosphere when compared to measurements…  Accounting for this missing coarse dust adds a warming effect of 0.15 W·m−2 [watts per square meter] and increases the likelihood that dust net warms the climate system.  We conclude that to properly represent the impact of dust on the Earth system, climate models must include an accurate treatment of coarse dust in the atmosphere.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/15/eaaz9507

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Climate Model Projections Significantly Diverge from Paleoclimate Analogs

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09/21/climate-model-projections-significantly-diverge-from-paleoclimate-analogs/

and…

New study finds that cosmic rays, solar activity have much greater impact on earth’s climate than models suggest

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2017/12/new_study_finds_that_cosmic_rays_solar_activity_have_much_greater_impact_on_earths_climate_than_models_suggest.html

and…

New paper finds more evidence of the ‘poor performance‘ of climate models

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/12/new-paper-finds-more-evidence-of-poor.html

and…

 Climate Models Still Struggle With Medium-Term Climate Forecasts

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121206122334.htm

[Perhaps, but ASND assures readers that long-term climate forecasts are much more accurate.]

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Crunching The Global Warming Numbers:

Climate Models Horrendous At Predictions, Both Future & Past

http://www.c3headlines.com/2011/11/crunching-the-global-warming-numbers-climate-models-horrendous-at-predictions-both-future-past.html

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Continued faith in flawed [climate] models breaks central tenets of science

Observations show major flaws

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/10/man-made-global-warming-disproved/

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No Global Warming For Almost Sixteen Years

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/18/no-global-warming-for-almost-sixteen-years/

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Clouds:

Scientists admit they did not model clouds accurately and that they need a supercomputer 1000 times more powerful to accurately do that.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/scientists-conclude-dire-climate-change-models-were-wrong-now-what

and…

“... all [climate resaerch] models are wrong – not got enough middle and low level clouds.”

http://junkscience.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0-all-models-wrong/

and…

“All climate models falsely assume clouds result in net positive feedback and increased temperatures, however this new paper and several others show clouds instead result in net negative feedback and cooling.”

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/new-paper-finds-clouds-act-as-negative.html

and…

New paper finds climate models grossly underestimate cooling from clouds

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/08/new-paper-finds-climate-models-grossly.html

and…

New paper finds clouds cool the climate

The finding contradicts the assumptions programmed into climate models that clouds act as a net positive feedback to cause warming.

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/11/new-paper-finds-clouds-cool-climate.html

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No one can really forecast weather, much less climate, at this point.”

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/11/climategate-20-email-no-one-can-really.html

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Ocean Heat Content: Climate Models Continue To Fail Miserably At Predicting OHC

http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/01/ocean-heat-content-climate-models-continue-to-fail-miserably-at-predicting-ohc.html

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AGW alarmist climate scientists predicted that increasing human CO2 emissions would cause an increase in water vapor with the result being a global warming tipping point – empirical evidence completely discredits that prediction

http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/02/climate-scientists-confirm-that-actual-atmospheric-water-vapor-levels-invalidate-global-warming-tipp.html

[“AGW,” for those who don’t know, is an acronym for  Anthropogenic  Global Warming.]

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The NAS has issued a report that confirms the obvious climate science disaster: billions wasted on climate models – they still can’t predict squat.”

http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/03/billions-wasted-on-climate-models.html

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Further Evidence Of The Failure Of Multi-Decadal Regional Climate Predictions To         By [sic] Of Value To The Impacts Communities

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/03/15/further-evidence-of-the-failure-of-multi-decadal-regional-climate-predictions-to-by-of-value-to-the-impacts-communities/

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Global Warming Models Are Wrong Again

The observed response of the climate to more CO2 is not in good agreement with predictions.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304636404577291352882984274.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[Dr. Happer is a professor of physics at Princeton.]

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Max Planck Institute Director Admits ‘Physical Causes Unclear…  Models Inconsistent With Observations!’

http://notrickszone.com/2012/04/17/max-planck-institute-director-admits-physical-causes-unclear-models-inconsistent-with-observations/

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New Climate Models Fall Short

http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/new-climate-models-fall-short

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Climate Models and their Limitations

http://www.nipccreport.org/archive/models.html

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New Climate Models Fall Short

http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/new-climate-models-fall-short

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 Climate models fail reality test

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/fp-comment/blog.html?b=opinion.financialpost.com/2012/06/13/junk-science-week-climate-models-fail-reality-test

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UN IPCC:

EU Research Confirms Major Fault In IPCC [Climate] Models

http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/07/climate-modeling-failure-eu-research-confirms-major-fault-in-ipcc-models-based-on-incorrect-historic.html

and…

Soil Moisture Illustrates Why IPCC Computer Models Fail

http://drtimball.com/2012/soil-moisture-illustrates-why-ipcc-computer-models-fail/

and…

Climate modeling failure continues to be the dominant symptom of the current institutionalized climate science – unfortunately, it now appears the IPCC’s past climate / temperature prediction fiascoes will continue in the 2013 report.

http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/08/climate-modeling-failure-latest-ipcc-climate-models-to-be-used-in-2013-report-fail-temperature-predi.html

and…

Errors And Omissions In Major Tropical Climate Mechanism Invalidate IPCC Computer Models

http://principia-scientific.org/index.php/latest-news/errors-and-omissions-in-major-tropical-climate-mechanism-invalidate-ipcc-computer-models.html

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Yet another paper shows that the climate models have flaws, described as ‘gross’ ‘severe’ and ‘disturbing’.”

http://joannenova.com.au/2012/08/models-get-cloud-feedback-wrong-but-only-by-70wm2-thats-19-times-larger-than-the-co2-effect/

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These short term trends do not fit global warming theory.

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/30/polar-amplification-4/

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Climate change models ‘misjudge‘ drought

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/climate-change-research-questions-worse/story-e6frf7k6-1226473069946

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Sea Level Fall Defies Climate Warnings

http://www.thegwpf.org/sea-level-fall-defies-climate-warnings/

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German Meteorologist On Temperature Models: “So Far They Are Wrong For ALL Atmospheric Layers!

http://notrickszone.com/2012/10/05/german-meteorologist-on-temperature-models-so-far-they-are-wrong-for-all-atmospheric-layers/

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New paper finds models have it wrong again

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/11/new-paper-finds-models-have-it-wrong.html

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New paper finds climate models exaggerate projected warming

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/12/new-paper-finds-climate-models_27.html

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New paper finds climate models are unable to reproduce ENSO and other teleconnections

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/01/new-paper-finds-climate-models-are.html

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… reactive iodine, along with bromine, in the atmosphere is responsible for the destruction of vast amounts of ozone – around 50 per cent more than predicted by the world’s most advanced climate models…

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/01/130113144812.htm

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New paper finds climate models offer little beyond simulating a random walk

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/01/new-paper-finds-climate-models-offer.html

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